World Cup Fever - How Chess Can Help You Pick the Winner!

It may, or more probably may not, be coming home, but despair not, Even if England are not going to win the World Cup - and let's be honest, it really doesn't look like we will - we can still secure ourselves a little bit of glory by correctly tipping the winners. And while the bookies have France as very strong favourites, I think I have found a way to outwit them.

We all know that chess is the greatest game ever invented - certainly better than Snap or Old Maid or that other card game that very old people play when they've given up caring - so why wouldn't it also help to work out the winners of the greatest sport ever invented? Answer: it wouldn't! Which means I have hit on a fool-proof way to work out who will be lifting the Jules Rimet Trophy (oops, showing my age there, its now been replaced by the uninspiringly named FIFA World Cup Trophy) after the final. Clearly the winners are going to be the team with the most Grand Masters in their team!

Well not actual Grand Masters, of course, as England's chances would be even lower if we were relying on Ray Keane between the sticks, for instance. What we need to look for are teams that have players with the same name as Grand Masters - the more they've got, and the higher they're rated, the more chance they've surely got of winning the World Cup? So let's see how they all stack up.

Team	Grand Masters	GM Country	Rating
Mexico	Martinez	Mexico	2650
	Martinez	Cuba	2455
South Africa	Williams	England	2455
	Adams	England	2622
Canada	Jones	England	2639
	Davies	England	2276
Brazil	Santos (Latasa)	Spain	2632
	Santos (Ruiz)	Spain	2604
Scotland	Adams	England	2622
	Gordon	England	2429
	Shankland	USA	2647
Paraguay	Sosa	Argentina	2546
	Fernandez	England	2539
	Fernandez	USA	2420
	Fernandez	Spain	2350
	Gomez	Spain	2371
	Gomez	Philippines	2365
Turkey	Yilmaz	Turkey	2556
USA	Turner	Scotland	2460
	Adams	England	2622
Curacao	(Curt) Hansen	Denmark	2590
	(Sune Berg) Hansen	Denmark	2490
	Hansen	Norway	2383
Ecuador	Rodriguez	Argentina	2422
Germany	Anton	Spain	2657
	Pavlovic	Serbia	2406
Japan	Nakamura	USA	2792
Sweden	Smith	Sweden	2439
	Smith	USA	2367
New Zealand	Smith	Sweden	2439
	Smith	USA	2367
Spain	Garcia	Colombia	2475
	Garcia	Italy	2396
	Ruiz	Colombia	2474
	Williams	England	2455
	Munoz	Peru	2316
Uruguay	Martinez	Mexico	2650
	Martinez	Cuba	2455
	Rodriguez	Argentina	2422
France	Hernandez	Mexico	2398
Norway	Berg	Sweden	2474
Argentina	Martinez	Mexico	2650
	Martinez	Cuba	2455
	Gonzalez	Cuba	2530
	Gonzalez	Mexico	2466
	Gonzalez	Costa Rica	2453
	Gonzalez (Garcia)	Spain	2426
	Gonzalez (Perez)	Spain	2391
	Lopez	Spain	2486
	Fernandez	England	2539
	Fernandez	USA	2420
	Fernandez	Spain	2350
Colombia	Munoz	Peru	2316
	Rios	Colombia	2405
	Rodriguez	Argentina	2422
	Hernandez	Mexico	2398
	Gomez	Spain	2371
	Gomez	Philippines	2365
Portugal	Costa	Germany	2540
	Fernandes	Portugal	2298
Uzbekistan	Yusupov	Germany	2537
England	Gordon	England	2429
Ghana	Williams	England	2455
Panama	Martinez	Mexico	2650
	Martinez	Cuba	2455
	Rodriguez	Argentina	2422

As you can imagine, we aren't going to have an African winner, as they can only manage 3 name-alike GMs in all their squads combined, despite a double appearance by the Ginger GM Simon Williams for South Africa and Ghana. And its even worse for Asia as it can only muster 2 GM name-alikes - though that does include the highest rated chess player at this World Cup in the shape of the 2792 rated Hikaru Nakamura - but he couldn't win it for Japan by himself, which explains why they've already been knocked out!

There are currently 6 teams quoted at odds of 20/1 or less, but my method (or maybe I shouold call it My System?) can instantly rule out four of these. England and hot faviourites have no chance, with only one GM each in their ranks. I slightly favour England of the two, as at least Stephen Gordon is an English GM, while France's GM name-alike comes from Mexico. We can also cross off Portugal and Brazil, as they are not much better with just 2 GMs each and in this case I slightly favour Portugal as they have a home GM - albeit that he's rather lowly rated these days!

Which leaves just 2 of the big dogs in the reckoning - Spain and Argentina. Europe's top hopes have 5 GMs (with 4 different names including the ubiquitous Simon Williams!) in their squad, but none are even rated 2500 currently, so they are obviously missing a bit of fire power. which can't said about Argentina, who weigh in with a completely full team of 11 GMs, headed by Jose Martinez (now of Mexico and rated 2650) with Dan Fernandez of England (2539) on second board. (Rather than Board 5 which is where he sits in the recently announced England team for the Chess Olympiad!) Disappointingly, they can only muster 4 different names - but as they have both a Gonzalez and a Fernandez (the two best names for this game!) in their squad, they have way more strength in depth than Spain.

So there you have it - the 2026 World Cup winners are going to be Argentina, who will beat surprise finalists ............. Paraguay! Yes folks, you read it here first. The currently 500/1 outsiders are going to upset those odds and make it all the way to the final. (My System told you they'd knock Germany out - and they're going to do the same to France!) They will be outgunned there by Argentina, but what a great effort its going to be. They have - ironically! - Argentina's Tomas Sosa as their strongest player amongst 6 GM name-alikes and it will be interesting to see how the 3 Fernandezes cope with playing for both teams at once! But they are GMs so they're clever guys. I reckon they'll find a way round it. Colombia are another very strong team, also fielding 6 GMs, but they have the misfortune to be in the same half of the draw as Argentina, so they are going to lose that encounter - even though they have 5 different named GMs playing for them - inclouding one of their own in the shape of GM Rios.

I have every confidence in these predictions, even though I am struggling to explain the early departures of Scotland, Uruguay and Panama from the tournament, despite having 3 GMs each. And in Scotland's case that included having two 2600+ GMs, which only Brazil can match. Must have beem bad management. I guess. The system obviously can't be wrong! As Nimzowich doubtless also said after the occasional loss!!

No real need for any music with this post, but I'm afraid that the recent posting of "Dark End of the Street" has really got to me and I've becomne a bit fascinated by the song. It turns out the world and his wife (probably not an acceptable term anymore - sorry!) have covered this song, including somne truly great names. How did I not know about it? anyway, to add to the Flying Burrito Brothers and Gregg Allman versions, here are three more. We start with the original recording by James Carr. Then its the turn of Linda Ronstadt, and we'll finish (for now at least!) with the great Aretha Franklin. Choose your favourite, but please do not send me the answer on a postcard or any other form of communication!

Though for what its worth my preferences are, in descending order, - (1) Flying Burrito Brothers (2) James Carr (3) Aretha Franklin (4) Linda Ronstadt and (5) Gregg Allman. But there are at least two more versions thatI know of, so the fight for top spot may not be over yet!